[Gllug] Tornado in London

[salsaman]

SteveC wrote:

>* @ 07/12/06 06:02:03 PM jr at stabilys.com wrote:
>  
>
>>Incidentally (and trivially): more energy into weather systems -> more 
>>likelihood of transitions over boundary conditions into new chaotic 
>>forms with bifurcations, period doublings etc... so more tornados to 
>>come, no doubt.
>>    
>>
>
>Could you explain some of this? It's been a long time since I studied
>complex systems and fractals... While I recognise the terms I'm not
>wholly clear on why increasing the energy implies them?
>
>have fun,
>
>SteveC steve at asklater.com http://www.asklater.com/steve/
>  
>
I'm a bit rusty on my chaos theory, but I'll try to explain from what I 
know. Chaotic systems tend to oscillate around a fixed state (local 
minimum). If you put more energy in, the state can shift and the system 
can then oscillate around a higher energy equilibrium, until the energy 
is dissipated, when it returns to the the lower equilibrium state.

One example is a pendulum swinging, if you put enough energy in it will 
tend to keep swinging for ever, if you put more energy in, then 
eventually it will start to circle around the fixed point.

The weather is a very complex system, in that it has both positive and 
negative feedbacks. For example a tornado will eventually dissipate 
through loss of energy (negative feedback), but with global warming, 
melting of ice caps causes less sunlight reflected back, kills many of 
the carbon dioxide eating creatures, and releases methane locked in 
permafrost (positive feedbacks).

But it's late and I must go to bed...

Gabriel.

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