[Lincoln LUG] Is 2017 the year of the Linux Desktop

[Hauke Laging]

Am Donnerstag, 12. Januar 2017, 14:58:48 CET schrieb tom bruton via Lincoln:
> Yes here we go again. 2017 is going to be the year of the Linux desktop.

Improbable. It may later be known as the year when the preparations for the 
later "year of the Linux desktop" reached a serious level. But that requires a 
lot of people in the Linux community to do something about it regularly... ;-)


> I think we can hit 5% market share.

What are the limitations for the growth of Linux usage on the desktop?

1) There is the trivial one that new users must be interested in using Linux 
first. This might be split up further into parts like (a) "hearing about it at 
all" and (b) "learning things about it that actually get you interested in 
getting to know it" and then, (c) after having seen and tried it elsewhere, 
(d) "becoming interested in installing it".

This (at least a and b) could (but will not) happen quite fast. All you need 
is the nationwide non-IT media to regularly (and positively) cover Linux on 
the desktop of average computer users.


2) The amount of people who can (with or without costs) be supported with 
their Linux installation. That is probably the bottleneck. I assume there are 
not many non-Linux users left who would try to install a new OS on their own, 
without immediate access to someone who can help. How many installations can 
the LUGs support? A much higher support capacity would be in the adult 
education centres if they start offering that.


In May 2015 the Berlin Linux user group (BeLUG) has started a biannual event 
which shall take care of problem 1 (first c and 1d, later a and b on a large 
scale). We want to not just do anything but make a real difference. What would 
we accept as "a real difference"? Let's say 10% Linux desktop users in 10 
years. For Germany that means something like 500,000 new users per year. Where 
and how shall 500,000 people per year get in touch with Linux?

We had Linux Presentation Day events in about 80 cities in Germany. This 
number is growing slowly because very few people care about spreading the 
event and the organisation emphasis is currently on getting more countries 
involved.

Let's assume in two years we have 1,000 locations in Germany (which does seem 
a bit crazy but is possible) and can handle on average 100 visitors per 
location (the truth is probably closer to 50). With two events per year and 
every visitor becoming a Linux user that would be 200,000 per year. Not even 
half of what we need for the 10% aim...


> Please discuss. PS sorry for being a troll

It's not my LUGs mailing list but I would be fine with some trolling as long as 
you do something useful in the real world:

http://www.linux-presentation-day.org/idea/
Just translated a few hours ago:
http://www.linux-presentation-day.org/participate/organizer/

Last year we had 15 European countries participating (but just three cities in 
the UK). The spring event (April / May) will exceed Europe for the first time: 
The US, Canada, and New Zealand will participate, probably Australia, Israel , 
and one or two more European countries, too.


But discussion doesn't get the job done. Someone has to say, "I will do that 
for my area"...


CU

Hauke
-- 
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