[Sussex] Linux market to exceed $35bn by 2008

[Steve Dobson]

Richie

On Fri, Feb 04, 2005 at 10:51:08AM +0000, Richie Jarvis wrote:
> Steve Dobson wrote:
> >On Fri, Feb 04, 2005 at 08:42:28AM -0000, Andrew Guard wrote:
> > > [I]t an issue of trust at the moment most business only trust
> > > Microsoft etc.
> >
> > I don't think that is true.  It is a matter of change, and most people
> > don't like change.
> >
> > The change to Linux in the server room doesn't effect many people.  As
> > only the administrators have to change to the new system.  Even if the
> > server is a file server, so long as it serves up the files the desktop
> > users don't see any change.
> >
> > The big problem with putting Linux on the desktop is not that it can't
> > be done, it is not that the apps aren't available.  It is the disruption
> > to business while people adapt to the "new order".
> 
> Damn right!  Hell, if I could get the entire office to switch to non M$ 
> products, and Linux, I would - cos then I could run it myself - however, 
> there is always one that won't (normally someone senior with Clout) - 
> and that stops the rest of us.
> 
> And that doesn't even begin to deal with the problem of connecting 
> everyones non-standard devices (Can you connect an Ericsson P900 on 
> Linux?  Probably, but I wouldn't spend my time supporting it, and they 
> would then bitch.)  Or, that most wonderful package - Sage Line 50 - 
> another thing that would have to be run in an unsupported environment.

The ol' chicken and egg problem: To get market penetration you need a
wide range of devices to be supported; to get a wide range of devices
supported you need market penetration.
 
> My opinion is definately that the only way to make it happen in the 
> short term is to make the Linux Desktop as easy to use and as familiar 
> as Windoze - and that means software compatibility, hardware 
> compatibility, etc.

I'm not so sure.  Users are make M$ products incompatible themselves.
I was at a client's site the other day and the guy I was with got somewhat
irate because a colleague had remap the key bindings to different functions.
While it made her life easier it didn't help him any.

If the Linux desktop (Gnome or KDE) becomes just like Windows I think we
will loss something - a distinguishing feature - Mac have not had to 
switch to a multi-buttoned mouse!

> In the long term, I hope that M$ continue on their policy of alienating 
> users and companies such that the users naturally migrate to Linux.

I'm sure M$ will be pulled in two directions by the same need.  How can
they kill of Linux using their IP if they don't show that IP is important
to them - not the "no patches for unlicensed machines"; but exercising
their IP control is one of the ways they help push people away from 
Windows.

But there is a way you can help too.  If you get to specify hardware 
select hardware that is Linux compatible today, even if the system is
going to be running Windows.  It shouldn't be to hard to justify.  Point
out that the ROI on this hardware is better.  If questioned show them a
copy of the UK Government's report on Linux in Government.  It shows that
a PC running Linux has twice the useable lifespan of one running Windows.
By selected FOSS compatible hardware you are allowing the system to be
used for another purpose, after it has finished its Window's life.

It will also have the effect of supporting companies that are supporting
Linux (by making their hardware specs available to FOSS developers to
develop the appropriate drivers).  Companies that are not open to FOSS
needs will get a smaller market share and thus have to re-think their 
position about FOSS.

Steve
Linux system