[Sussex] Microsoft to collapse..

[paul.morriss at tokenbay.co.uk]

> Geoff,
>
> I think many of us have been predicting the demise of Microsoft (some
> even earnestly willing it) for some time. Bill Gates has often dismissed
> some new technology (the Internet for one) only to turn round and
> embrace it fully. The difference now is that there are few open avenues
> for Microsoft to head down in order to increase it's revenue stream.
> They have tried the consumer market (Windows Media Edition, X-Box) but
> here the competition is well established (Sony, Nintendo) so the chance
> of them succeeding here is minimal - they'll simply be yet another
> provider in the market, and not even the best.
>

I disagree with this statement, Microsoft has broken into a difficult
market with the X-Box and has done very very well against Sony and
Nintendo, they have shown that the X-Box can be a big-gun alongside the
PS2 and Game Cube.  I have backed the PS2 because it's what I have and I
don't see the point in investing in new hardware for the games.  Since the
X-Box graphics is based on Direct-X they have not had to invest as much as
Sony or others.

> The only real way Microsoft is going to survive is to embrace change in
> the market in which it currently dominates - the desktop. We all think
> linux is already drizzling on Microsoft's Desktop parade; soon it'll be
> thunderstorming it down. Some time ago I rather jokingly suggested that
> Microsoft would slag off linux, right up until the moment when Bill
> Gates (or Steve Ballmer) decides that it's pointless trying to be the
> rabbit in the middle of the road staring down the onrushing juggernaut.
> Then we'd see the release of Microsoft Linux 2006; who knows, maybe this
> is what's "something revolutionary under way in a back lab in Everett or
> Mountain View".
>
> After all, it'd be easy for Microsoft to download Gentoo (oh god, all
> right then, or possibly Debian) and use it as the basis of it's own
> distro. After all, the GPL and other OS licences encourage this sort of
> thing.
>

Did Microsoft not have a go at there own version Linux a while ago, I
thought I heard rumours about them trying again using .Net technology.

> In the end Microsoft may well end up being a designer of nice hardware
> (keyboards, mice etc), consumer stuff (Pocket Windows, X-Box, Windows
> Media Edition) and a top-notch Linux Distro that is easy install, stable
> and reliable and that leverages the experience of a huge Windows desktop
> user base. Anyone care to argue against a Windows clone desktop (window
> manager) running on a linux base? Not me, and Microsoft haven't got
> where they are today by being duffers in business.
>

Microsoft are already going hand-in-hand with Linux, Microsoft Office and
IIE to come to Linux, what next?  Internet Explorer, Media Player?  They
have the tecnological and financial might to do it.

> There are two good things here:
>
> 1. Microsoft will be up against established competition like SUSE,
> RedHat, and for the more knowledgable, Debian, Ubuntu, Gentoo etc.
>
> 2. They may well have to release their source code back into the public
> domain under the terms of the GPL (or whichever licence) - no doubt this
> will cause them to choke on their licence agreements, but if they've got
> any sense they'll realise that the OS development community is an
> immense asset, and they'd gain more by being open than not.
>

Don't count on Microsoft to play by the rules ;)  From the recent articles
I have seen on the wire regarding Samba, if they get there they will stop
intercompatibility with Samba if they could.

> </rant>
>

Pau;